Football is often criticized for its propensity to leave matches in a draw. With the eyes of the world on the tournament in Qatar, the volume of teams leaving the stadium without a visible victor has increased, leading to cries of a sport in need of excitement. Whether or not you prescribe to those ideas, the point is now moot: it’s time for knockout football. After 48 matches over 13 days, two nations have prevailed from each group to progress upon the world’s finest stage for the beautiful game. From now on, two teams shall enter these theaters to play out a possible two hours of enthralling, desperate challenges illustrative of all the reasons that these matches are the most popular show on television. Now, only one leaves with hope. For these two sides, it’s an opportunity to capitalize upon chances eight years in the making, and it’s all the more pressing that they prevail for their manager, for their associations, and for the nations standing in full behind them.
Neither the United States nor the Netherlands qualified for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, a catastrophe in both nations that set back a promising generation of footballers four years. In America, a devastatingly unexpected defeat to Trinidad and Tobago on the final day of qualifying left the USMNT without even the intercontinental playoff match. The loss set in motion major changes within the camp, and the squad chosen by manager Gregg Berhalter featured only one player from the nation’s last World Cup appearance, in 2014. The team, amongst the youngest in the tournament and boasting 23-year-old Tyler Adams as their captain, finds a second round berth against the Netherlands an opportunity to continue writing a new chapter in their history. They’re on bonus time, essentially, and it’s exciting how far they can ride the youthful revolution.
Opposite them stands a Dutch side under Louis van Gaal desperate to hold onto their place as a world power: they boast world-class footballers like Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong, Matthias de Ligt of Bayern Munich, supported by a cast of players scattered around Europe’s top seven leagues. Despite their obvious talent, however, they’ve struggled to capitalize on a mercurial generation of players. Eight years ago, in Brazil, they lost on penalty kicks to Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the semifinals in a match that appears to have been their best chance at challenging for the title. Now, they step back into the knockout stages of a World Cup from a group in which they struggled to truly hit form. It’s vital that they find their stride now.
The match will largely depend on both sides’ quality in transition. Cody Gakpo and Timothy Weah present explosive options on the break, with both players registering above the 94th percentile amongst midfielders for progressive passes received. Their electric speed will prove a release from game-states that in the group stage often saw teams slow down the speed of play with the intention of limiting those opportunities. For the Americans, their match against Wales was testament to Weah’s quality, seeing an overwhelming majority in possession fail to translate into genuine chances until the right winger latched onto the end of a through ball from Christian Pulisic to score the USMNT’s first World Cup goal since their outing in Brazil. Similarly, Cody Gakpo broke through with a headed finish in their match against Senegal after 84 minutes where it seemed impossible to score. The goal proved vital to Van Gaal’s side’s first-placed finish in the group, as Senegal finished just a point behind them.
Often, the American front three will match man-for-man against the Dutch center backs in a test of power and athleticism. If they can succeed in stretching a defense focused on limiting the counter attacking potential within Gregg Berhalter’s 11, they have a chance at the upset. Opportunities for the young side come from turnovers and the exploitation of their speed. However, if the American wide forwards find themselves pinned back by the marauding wing-backs and the Dutch back line can continually isolate Berhalter’s man of choice, it could spell crisis for a stranded striker and they’ll be able to limit the USA’s opportunities. Especially with starboy Christian Pulisic’s day-to-day pelvic injury, their tactical approach will lean heavily towards the influence of those dynamic wide players.
For the Netherlands, they’ll look to Frenkie de Jong as the man to create opportunities for Gakpo and Memphis Depay. One of FC Barcelona’s many midfield diamonds, he takes on a more attack-minded role with his nation. Combining with Denzel Dumfries’ rampaging runs on the right flank, he will look to unlock an American defense who’ve yet to concede a goal from open play in the tournament. If the Dutch control this match, it’ll be through the player who hits the 87th percentile for passes attempted and 93rd for passes completed (via FBref). They can win this match by tiring out the American attackers and limiting their quick breaks. Given time, the Americans are susceptible to through balls and speedy wingers, a danger the Dutch hold in spades. This match presents an opportunity long deprived from both of these nations. Too long have they been without true, world-class football. However, the side that progresses from this battle will prove a hefty task for any of the big guns waiting. The World Cup is a time for belief, for faith in your team, and for the passion buried by years of disappointment to explode into celebration. This is that chance. Neither team can afford to miss it. This match is must-watch football.